Sector.mx ← Labs

Ninety
Seconds

Sector.mx Labs

London feeds one runway from four holding stacks ringed around the city. Whatever corner an arrival comes down through (holding when the flow is heavy, routed straight in when it is not), it merges onto the same single final, and the airplanes land about ninety seconds apart, over and over. This is an attempt to reverse-engineer the rules the Director builds that gap with, read off public aircraft motion: what sets it, what does not, and where on the approach it is made.

1 · The target

One gap, over and over

Reconstruct every landing pair over four westerly days from public aircraft motion, measure the gap at a gate on short final, and the result is a single tight lump. The median gap is about ninety seconds. About three in five land between 75 and 105 seconds. There is one mode, not several. Ninety seconds is the number the Director works to. The rest of the page investigates how.

The gap they land with, 2019 pairs of 2382, four westerly days. A single mode near ninety seconds (green), median marked. About three in five inside 75 to 105 s, a working gap chosen with margin over the legal floor. A thin tail runs right, a few pairs past two hundred seconds. One landing runway.

A single mode is already a clue. If the gap were an accident, a leftover of whatever timing or traffic happened to arrive, it would smear. It does not. Something is building it to one value. The sections that follow take that apart.

2 · Not the release clock

The order barely carries

The obvious guess is release timing: space the aircraft out of the stacks and that spacing carries to the runway. Watch when each aircraft is released from its stack and the intervals are all over the place, back to back one minute, three minutes apart the next, sometimes even out of order (the pair swaps on final, so the gap goes negative). Watch when those same aircraft land and the gaps collapse to ninety seconds.

Each dot is one landing pair. Across is the gap between their releases, a cloud several times wider than the result. Up is the gap they land with, clustered near ninety seconds; the green band is 75 to 105 s, where three in five land. The fit through the cloud is nearly flat and explains only a few percent of the spread. Release timing washes out by the runway; the spacing is rebuilt afterward.

Even the stack an aircraft comes from, which fixes its rough distance to the runway, does not set the gap. BIG is about four and a half minutes out, BNN about nine. That gradient decides who lands first; how far apart is set later, on final.

3 · The wake rule, measured

A muted wake step, flown tighter than the book

The Director does apply wake separation, so rather than assume the rule, we read it off the deliveries. Tag every landing with its aircraft type, group the consecutive pairs by leader-and-follower wake category, and take the median gap each pairing actually lands with. If a pair-by-pair distance table drove the gap, the medians would fan into well-separated bands, one per pairing.

Delivered median gap by wake pair (green), against what the generic book would demand (gold tick). The step is real but muted: it climbs gently from same-category pairs near the ninety-second reference to a super ahead of a medium. It does not fan into the separated bands a distance table would make. The book here is the generic ICAO distance minima over the follower's measured final speed, and it only bites when a medium follows a much larger jet: on those three pairs the delivery runs below it, the gold tick above the green bar, because Heathrow flies the finer, tighter RECAT-EU categories. On the other three the book is just the small radar minimum, so the delivered gap sits above it, set by the roughly ninety-second operating target rather than by wake. (Its time-based separation does a different job: holding the gap steady in seconds as the headwind builds.)

Two rules fall out. First, wake does step the delivered gap, but gently, and the expensive pairings land tighter than the generic table would ever allow. Second, from the landing sequence itself: the expensive heavy-ahead-of-medium pairing is under-represented, about 16% of pairs against 22% under independent ordering. Part of that is wake-aware sequencing set upstream, part is just Heathrow's banked schedule; either way the worst pairings are thinned before they reach the runway. So the tight single mode is not wake-blind: a small separation premium flown tight, with the expensive pairings kept scarce in the order.

4 · Where it is built

Built on final, by vector and speed

To find where the number is made, measure the same pairs not just at the gate but at every distance to touchdown. Sample the gap between two aircraft while they are still forty, thirty, twenty miles out, and watch when it settles. Leaving the stacks it is chaotic. It collapses over a few miles of final and then holds, unchanged, to the runway.

How much the gap varies, by distance to touchdown (spread = the p15-to-p85 range of the pair gaps at that distance). Far out, the spread is huge, the aircraft are nowhere near their final spacing. It collapses between roughly twenty and twelve miles out, from around two hundred seconds of spread to about forty, and then does not move to the runway. The gap is made in between, on the intermediate and final approach, by vectoring and speed control.

The approach control team works it with two levers, in series: first the track, a tight dog-leg onto the ILS that sets the gross gap, then the speed, which does the fine spacing once an aircraft is established on the localizer.

5 · The two levers, separated

Speed funnels onto one profile

Section 4 named two levers, the track and the speed, and they act in different places. The gap is essentially made before the final turn: once an aircraft is on the localizer it changes by only a couple of seconds, though a median dog-leg of about 1.3 times the straight-line distance shows the track was working hard to get there. What the speed does shows up on the localizer itself. The exact share each lever takes is entangled with where each aircraft was released, so the motion cannot split it cleanly, but where the gap settles, and what the speed does there, are clear.

Groundspeed by distance to touchdown (median line, p15-to-p85 band). The speeds start wide, aircraft still fast and descending. By about eight miles they are funneled onto one tight profile near 160 kt, a standard approach speed arrivals are held to until the last few miles, then eased to the landing speed. The narrow band on final is that speed restriction holding the gap the track already built.
The takeaway

Read off the motion, the whole operation comes down to a few habits. The Director works to one gap of about ninety seconds and rebuilds it on final, whichever stack an aircraft came down from. Wake still steps the gap, but gently, tighter than the book, and the expensive pairings are thinned from the sequence before they reach the runway. None of it is a clock counted at the stack or a table read at the gate: it is one gap, built over and over by vector and speed on final.

MethodFour westerly days (26 to 29 June 2026), a wide capture around the field. One landing runway (London runs segregated, so every arrival is a single in-trail stream). 2382 landing pairs, the 2019 with a measured release plotted in the scatter and its fit. A release is an aircraft leaving its stack; the delivered gap is measured at a fixed gate on final, and for the convergence figure the same gap is measured at successive distances to touchdown.

The wake rule is measured, not assumed: each landing carries its ICAO type, so the delivered median is grouped by leader-and-follower wake category; the "book" it is shown against is the generic ICAO Doc 4444 4-category distance minima (radar minimum where no wake pair applies) divided by the follower's own measured final groundspeed.

Our caveats: (1) that generic book is not the finer, tighter RECAT-EU / time-based scheme Heathrow actually flies, so it overstates the real minima, which is exactly why the delivered gaps beat it on the expensive pairs; (2) the gate used here is short final, not the threshold, a proxy taken because speed is roughly stabilised there; (3) the stream is largely wake-homogeneous (most pairs are same-category), so part of the single mode is the traffic mix, not the controller alone. The right tail (about 6% of pairs land more than 150 s apart) is mostly ordinary same-category pairs in a demand lull, plus a handful of go-arounds, not a wake effect.

Anyone with an equivalent ADS-B pull can reproduce or refute every figure here. These are correlations, a description of the delivered stream, not a controller's rulebook or an operational display.

DataAircraft positions from adsb.lol globe_history, licensed ODbL 1.0.